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Our Take:
Ruminating on 3G

by phil carson
May/June 2001

So are third-generation technologies turning into a chimera for an industry in rapid evolution and addicted to hype?

Hardly. But there remains a legitimate view that no one has figured out how to cross the chasm between mobilizing familiar tasks and a whole other category of thrilling applications. Parsing certain notions and juggling semantics allows a closer look at an unfolding picture.

It’s clear to me that carriers deploying CDMA2000 1X networks will say, with the International Telecommunications Union’s blessing, that “3G is here.” You too ought to read Brad Smith’s analytical piece in Wireless Week, May 7, 2001, “3G: Is the Race Over?” (Go to the www.wirelessweek.com portal.) You know the rundown on data speeds and definitions: 144 kilobits per second in motion, 384 kbps at pedestrian mobility speeds and 2 megabits per second in fixed situations, plus voice quality and capacity. And Smith correctly suggests that the wireless industry–ironically, in a mirror image of the market itself, which also harbors visions–sees 3G as “a point in time and a wireless nirvana where all dreams come true.”

The caveat, of course, is that the mass market–also known as actual users of this technology–cares nothing of new networks and data speeds unless they enable productivity and fun. The public possesses a vague notion that 3G means multimedia (visuals, sounds, vibrations, what-have-you) while we talk “data.” One aside I cannot resist: For those providing “always-on” connectivity, don’t forget the “off” switch. Road warriors secretly covet out-of-coverage experiences. (Downtime! No e-mail!)

In practical terms, signs abound that that alluring 3G nirvana has been delayed: The 3GSM Congress in Cannes, France, earlier this year reportedly possessed an element of gloom as operators staggering from 3G license debt bemoaned their plight; NTT DoCoMo sensibly has delayed trials in Japan to get it right, no doubt certain it still will be first to market in any significant way; and in the United States, PCIA began a transformation a year ago talking multimedia and 3G, but it now has redirected its efforts at, among other things, global market research on users’ needs and desires en route to 3G. Accenture and other consultants advise on dynamic service mixes that provide return on investment today. (ROI Now! How’s that for a slogan? It certainly explains the current stance on Wall Street and among VCs.)  

The 3G chimera? As always, it depends on your perspective. For me it’s like looking directly down the tracks at an oncoming train. It’s difficult to assess the train’s speed, but it’s coming. Meanwhile, multitasking means profiting today, while inventing tomorrow.

E-mail: pcarson@cahners.com